Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach

I am not an intelligence analyst or even a serious student of intelligence analysis, but find this book an excellent stimulus to thought and a serious discussion of all aspects of analytical thought. Dr. Clark has a Ph.D. in Electronic Engineering and a J.D. both signifiers of expertise in analysis is very differing domains, these are in addition to his specific extensive experience as a member and thought leader in the Intelligence Community. In a brief survey of the book I found analysis and significant contributions in explaining diverse topics including Anwar Sadat's motivation for pursuing a war with Israel that he had little hope of winning (but which led to negotiation that recovered the Sinai Penninsula); a simple and coherent explanation of Bayesian Probability analysis, and a well-documented discussion of Scenario Planning. I would highly recommend this book for any student of a field that requires analytical thought, whether in science, technology or world affairs.

The author clearly is an expert on the topic of intelligence and provides a comprehensive view of target centered intelligence. He includes practical examples including current intelligence successes and failures such as those related to Yugoslavia and Iraq. He provides a clear perspective from intelligence analyst to collector to customer and gives clear advice on how to decompose issues, create conceptual target models, utilize force field analysis and influence diagrams and how to properly account for classic intelligence challenges. Well worth the read, plus has an exhaustive set of references that would be invaluable in a review of the literature in this area.

it highlited the best practice to be used in intelligence

Mr. Clark was actually my professor in a technological intelligence course at AMU, one of the toughest and most unforgettable courses I've ever taken in my life, literally studying rocket science at one point. His 2nd Edition hardcopy book was assigned and it is still one of my all-time favorites - concepts such as synergy and swarm techniques I learned and see everywhere in life even eight years later. The book is so well written, and the man is hands-down a genius. Some authors, people, instructors just stick with you and I am so glad I "tracked" Mr. Clark down and asked to be in his course. The book is chockablock with historical examples of his concepts which are extremely unique. I am excited to buy this new updated digital version, well worth the money. Rare quality amid so much dross out there nowadays, from one of the real-deals.

This is an excellent well-targeted resource for students and prospective intelligence analysts. It's NOT about tradecraft or spycraft, but rather about the way to analyze available information and come to conclusions. Clark concentrates on the mental and other biases that get in the way, using both real examples from the past and a few he constructed himself. So the book is, almost, another critical thinking and analysis book...except that it is tailored to the specific needs of intelligence analysis. Clark clearly knows what he is talking about. An audience he may not have had in mind but can benefit is authors writing novels that touch on intelligence - again, not for the operations aspect but for the analysis aspect. There are some useful ideas to help justify how blind your characters may seem to be to what's obvious to the reader. For the main audience of intelligence analysts and students, you can't do much better than this book. Superb.

A book for school

There aren't many qualified to write a book like this, but Robert Clark is among the few. It's entertaining because Clark has such strong opinions about the role and proper execution of intelligence analysis. Once the raw data has been gathered, it needs to be put together to make a prediction - and Clark loves a good prediction! He lays out the different approaches intelligence professionals take in a clear and descriptive way, with plenty of examples from his time at CIA and in military intelligence. Highly recommended to those curious about the details of analytic work.

"Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach" is now in its 5th edition. There have been some reorganization and additions since the 4th edition. Part 2 from the 4th edition, which addressed creating the model, is now in Part 1. All discussion of modeling and analyzing past and present is in Part 1. Part 2 addresses "The Estimative Process", prediction, in other words, which used to be Part 3. Discussion of systems and network views of analysis, touched on in the 4th edition, have been given their own Part 3, where three new chapters are dedicated to a systems view and two new chapters to a network view. These include discussion of customers and collectors of intelligence. There is also a new introductory chapter about "Intelligence in 21st Century Conflict," which discusses the hybrid nature of today's conflicts and conflicts between networks or "netwars." Each chapter has a good summary at the end so, if you are looking for specific information, it may help to read the summary to determine if the information you seek is in that chapter. Author Robert M. Clark is a lieutenant colonel, USAF, retired, who worked as a senior analyst at the CIA, has taught university at the graduate level, and is currently an independent consultant. I haven't done any of those things, so I don't know how widely-used the "target-centric" approach laid out in this book is. The author's objective is to "make a better intelligence analysis process" by redefining the process with special emphasis on the analyst-collector and analyst-customer relationships and by offering "some methodologies that make for better predictive analysis." There is a focus on failure of intelligence, which the author returns to repeatedly in order to illuminate how and why things go wrong and show what has been learned from the failures. In the author's words, "The book's primary audiences are practicing intelligence analysts and university students who are interested in entering the profession." The book may also be "of interest to all intelligence professionals and customers of intelligence, in government and private sectors." Part 1, "The Analysis Process", essentially tells the reader how to do analysis of past and current situations: how to define the issue, how to model it, and how to use the model. The author believes that "the intelligence process should revolve around how best to approach the target." He offers an alternative to the traditional intelligence cycle that he believes addresses its shortcomings. This is similar to "object-based production" currently in use. Six chapters are dedicated to different methods of modeling. They explain how to populate the models with information, how to evaluate information, pitfalls in weighing evidence, the impact of information technology, coping with denial, deception, and signaling by the target, and modeling the target as a system or as a network. Each chapter presents a variety of options for modeling your problem then explains how to use them. The author offers many historical examples, which liven up the text a bit. Part 2, "The Estimative Process", explains how to create target models of possible futures, which requires accurately assessing the forces at work. After a discussion of the difficulties in dealing with divergent, as opposed to convergent, phenomena and how to use extrapolation, projection, and forecasting, the author dedicates one chapter each to "Estimative Forces," "Scenarios," and "Simulation Modeling." Part 3, "Systems and Networks Views of Analysis", shifts gears to talk about the analyst's situation rather than the target. The author discusses the products of intelligence research, the pressures analysts come under to produce or ignore a particular outcome, followed by three chapters that take a systems view of intelligence analysis (function, process, structure) and two chapters about a network view, which talk about the analysts' relationship to the intelligence customer and collector(s) and how they impact the analyst's job. Most of the chapter on "Systems View: Function" is dedicated to reasons for intelligence failures. I am not an intelligence professional, so I can't say how much the material in this book differs from what intelligence analysts would already be doing or how difficult it might be to apply in practice in a workplace that has a different way of doing things. I read "Intelligence Analysis" primarily because I participate in geopolitical forecasting tournaments. I wondered if it might have something of use to me in forecasting or, more likely, an explanation of how intelligence agencies draw the conclusions that they publish. Robert M. Clark breaks down the many options for modeling the problem in enough detail to get you started. His emphasis on dissecting intelligence failures and the chapters on systems and network views of analysis place a practical emphasis on what position intelligence analysts are in realistically in their workplaces. That seems important from an outsider's perspective. There are some places where I think the author got carried away with explanations, such as his discussion of the Second Law of Thermodynamics and Claude Shannon's communications theory to explain that information degrades or changes as it passes through more hands (hearsay).

Exactly what I needed for my course!