Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World – Essential Strategy for Leaders in an Age of International Chaos

Review Article: Disunited Nations, The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World By Peter Zeihan, Harper Business, 2020 As an idealist and a liberal, this is the world I would like to see: The countries of the world unite to combat Global Warming. We address global and regional health challenges. We continue the upward path in combatting hunger and pulling our fellow humans out of poverty. We avoid war. We strengthen democracy and the rule of law throughout the world. We successfully end racism and dampen the violence born of ethnic and national rivalries. Women everywhere achieve full legal and social equality. We all think of ourselves as “World Citizens.” Our goals for the future can be summarized as liberty, equality, and the pursuit of happiness. “Happiness” not meaning jollity, but as a translation of the Greek concept of eudemonia, meaning human flourishing or prosperity. This is not the world that Peter Zeihan predicts. Instead of eudemonia he foresees pandemonia. The world we know is collapsing. …[The global future will be] a disastrous combination of the battle royales and displacements of the 1870s against the economic backdrop of the 1930s. It. Will. Suck. Unfortunately, I agree with him. He has convinced me. Here is his thesis: In the aftermath of World War II, Europe was in ruins; the British and French Empires were self-destructing; the Japanese Empire (dubbed the “Co-Prosperity Sphere”) was abandoned and Japan was occupied; China was mired in Civil War. Only two great powers remained—the United States and the Soviet Union. Even before the dust had settled, these two military powers began a globe-spanning competition that we soon dubbed “The Cold War.” The US-Soviet competition was economic, it was military, and it was geographic. In a way, you could think of it as a global border war. Wherever Soviet influence surfaced, the Americans made every effort to push it back. The Soviets countered by encouraging populist insurgencies in countries under American sway. The “battlefields” included Greece, Italy, China, Cuba, Vietnam, Nicaragua, Iran, Chile, Korea, and on and on. Milestones included the rapid acquisition of the Atom Bomb by the USSR, the embarrassment of Sputnik, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the triumph of landing a man on the moon, the bloody American defeat in Vietnam, the bloody Soviet defeat in Afghanistan. And, finally, the Fall of the Berlin Wall, the break-away of Eastern European States, and the utter collapse of the Soviet Union itself. Turning my notion of history on its head, Peter Zeihan says that the period between 1945 and today has been the most stable, least bloody, and most economically and socially advanced eras of world history—because of the Cold War. This is because the United States decided not to retreat to Fortress America, as it had after WWI. Instead, we embarked upon a global campaign of gaining allies through economic and military support. We built our alliances and built-up our allies; we broke down trade barriers and guaranteed the freedom of the seas to all nations—including the USSR and China. We exported food and agricultural technology, and imported finished goods, providing a market for developing and reconstructing nations. We encouraged global health initiatives and backed global institutions (The UN, World Bank, IMF, WHO, UNICEF, UNHCR, etc.). Within a short span of time we succeeded in creating a Global Order, the first in all history. You could call it the Pax Americana. Zeihan calls it simply The Order. He very persuasively argues that this Order was good for our enemies as well as our allies. And now it is ending. Hence the title of his new book, Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World. Why is the Global Order disintegrating? Because the Cold War is over and US policymakers no longer care to keep it going. We have been a benign hegemon, offering economic incentives to our friends, and military protections for the status quo throughout the world. This isn’t because we were altruistic, it’s because we didn’t want to fight a huge war, just to have Stalin replace Hitler. In fact, we were scared of Stalin and the global communist movement of which he was the head. But that has all changed. Russian is a hollow adversary. We don’t need to bribe other countries to be on our side. This may sound like a Trump thing, but it represents the new foreign policy consensus. It is simply realpolitik. This book is full of surprises, partially because Zeihan brings the fresh perspectives of geography and demography to a discussion that has been almost entirely focused on economics, ideology, trade, and technology. For geography, think about the flat plain that defines central Europe. There are no natural borders to invasion, and European history is replete with stories of conquest and counter-conquest. Compare that to Afghanistan, whose rugged mountains make a successful conquest virtually impossible. Hence its reputation as “the graveyard of empires.” For demography, think of Japan. With 25% of its population over age 60, Japan is the “oldest” society on the planet. Its birth-per-woman rate is 1.4, far below the population replacement rate of 2.1. It’s population hit a high 0f 128 million in 2010, is projected to hit 100 million in 2050, and 83 million in 2100. From Zeihan: “Japan can now look forward to an ever-rising bill for pensions and health care, an ever-shrinking tax base, and a deepening shortage of workers in every field.” This is a formula for economic disaster. Switch over to Russia, where the birthrate is 1.6 and that’s just the beginning of the story. From Zeihan: In addition to Russia’s shrinking demography and loss of the former Soviet territories, rising disease and drug addiction rates mean that the number of bodies available for Russia’s defense is already down to less than one-fifth of what it was in 1989. By 2022, the Russian army will likely have shrunk to half of its 2016 size, making it incapable of defending the old Soviet borders, much less the longer, more vulnerable borders Russia now has. For me, this is where the big surprises begin. Russia is not a threat or a major competitor to the United States, it is a society in economic and demographic decline. A Paper Bear. And China is a Paper Tiger. Thanks to the two-child and then one-child policy, China has created a massive imbalance in its male-to-female ratio, and its young worker to senior citizen ratio. Its current birthrate is 1.6. But China’s biggest problem is that it cannot feed its population without vast imports of food. It has less farmland per person than Saudi Arabia! And China does not have enough oil and natural gas to fuel its industrial and residential sectors. China is not the economic powerhouse it paints itself to be. Its books are cooked. Indeed, Zeihan claims that “…the entire Chinese economy [is] a grotesque approximation of Enron in nation-state form.” As the Order further dissolves, China will find itself unprotected, its access to middle-east oil threatened or cut off, and unable to control the inherent centrifugal forces that have traditionally broken it into pieces. Demographics and geographics, and the waning of the Order, also portend a very troubling future for Europe. Brexit is just the beginning of its dissolution. Are there are winners in the twenty-first century? The answer is yes, and some of the potential winners will surprise you. The big winner is the United States, and with it Canada and Mexico. North America can easily feed itself, it can produce pretty much everything it needs, it has plenty of carbon-based fuel and good potential for renewable energy. It has natural defenses against land invasion—in particular the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. And the US has the world’s most powerful Navy. Mexico is the largest trading partner for the United States; Canada is second. When you put the three countries together you have the most stable, well-integrated manufacturing system in the world. And it is one that requires almost nothing from the rest of the world. The one weak point in this system is demography. Like all developed countries, the United States (1.8 births per woman) and Canada (1.6) are on the depopulation path. Mexico, however, is at 2.2 births per woman. The immediate answer to this problem is to rely on immigration—from Mexico, of course, but also from Africa, India and the Middle East. The United States is a nation of immigrants, and so is Canada. Both countries have welcomed or at least allowed very significant numbers to enter their borders year after year, decade after decade. And they have been remarkably successful at integrating these immigrants into the larger society. This is not true for most of the countries in the world. The United States is not the only potential winner in the post-Order world. There are other countries that combine defensible borders, a strong military, and a population still youthful. These countries could become regional powers as the US military withdraws. Withdraws? The United States? Most of us on the left think that the US military is permanently embedded in vast areas of the world. Not so: In the seventh year of George W. Bush’s presidency, the United States initiated a broad global drawdown of its troop levels. That disengagement continued both under Barak Obama and Donald Trump. …the Americans now have fewer troops stationed abroad than at any time since the Great Depression. …The Americans have lost interest in being the global policeman, security guarantor, referee, financier, and market of first and last resort. If the global referee is off the field, then Turkey is in a very strong position to become a regional hegemon. So is Iran. So is Argentina. And so is France. Zeihan takes these countries one by one, and reviews their geographic, demographic, economic, and military advantages—should they decide to become expansionist. Consider the US response to Turkey’s invasion of northern Syria in the fall of 2019. The US stood back and allowed our Kurdish allies to be run over by Turkish tanks. How far will Turkey be allowed to proceed in dominating the Eastern Mediterranean? Only time will tell. Consider our lack of response to France’s military interventions in its former African colonies. Consider our troop withdrawals from Germany. Consider our lack of a protective response to the surprise attack on Saudi Arabia’s huge oil-processing facilities in Abqaiq (September 2019). And consider that the US has allowed supposedly demilitarized Japan to develop the second best navy in the world—far more powerful than China’s. Why? Because as we retreat, we expect Japan to ally with South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, and other traditional enemies—including India—to keep Chinese ambitions in check (think South China Sea dispute). So. Peter Zeihan’s new book is strong medicine. His arguments smash my idealism—or what’s been left of it—and foretell a very rough future for most of the nations on earth. It’s realpolitik, straight up, no ice, no chaser. Read it. Or if you don’t want to read it, you can listen to Zeihan himself on YouTube, going country by country, and summarizing his thesis. Zeihan is a terrific writer, truly pithy and pungent. He is an even more powerful speaker. My biggest argument with his thesis is demography. He sees population decline as a bad thing, using terms like “humanity’s charge into demographic oblivion.” With the world’s population at 7.8 billion, is a major decline in the world’s primary predators a bad thing? Is it bad for other living species? Is it bad for nature’s balance? Is it bad for the oceans and the Amazon rainforest? Is it bad for us, us humans, the ones who are choking on our own waste? I don’t think so. And that is why my next review will be of Empty Planet, the Shock of Global Population Decline, by Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson (Crown, 2019.)

Summary for a long review: Excellent book. A grim and brutally honest geographical, political, and military summary of several of the strongest and most influential nations. Most of these countries will be massively changed for the worst by America's ongoing rapid military withdrawal in world affairs that started with the end of the cold war pacts against the Soviet Union. This reads like a Tom Clancy book for coming wars, countries crashing down, power vacuums, and a dystopian future. It should sell well. One half star off for the long history lessons and not giving timelines or probabilities on particular events listed actually occurring. I read the book in one go. This is the third book by Peter Zeihan and his second best. “Accidental Superpower” is his best book as it is a global summary of why certain countries have strong economies due mostly to what they have in the way of geography, resources, governments, and safe borders. I consider it essential reading to fully understand Disunited Nations. If this is your first time reading Peter’s books, buy both. Read Accidental Superpower first, and then this book. I definitely would go for the hard copies as there are a lot of footnotes and maps that make Kindle reading a lot of flipping about to read the footnotes and jumping to the web page to see the maps. Colored maps are now included for Disunited Nations on Peter’s website which is terrific as the gray on gray shading of the hard copy is tough to interpret. Absent Superpower is more about the affect oil has on the world, how protecting the sea-lanes is impossible for most nations without the US fleets and the effect that the fracking revolution has had on the US so it is my third choice for his books. The premise of the book is that the US created free global access and protection to oceangoing commerce at the end of WW2 to countries that backed US attempts to block the Soviet Union from gaining territories or coercing governments. The US also opened its doors to free trade with the US companies and consumers even though that created large trade imbalances. With the fall of the Soviet Union, inertia kept that going but it is quickly going away. No longer will the US instinctively fight wars like Korea or Vietnam just to show that they were all in on protecting their allies. No longer will the US fight wars in the Middle East to protect oil trade now that we export fracked oil. No longer will our aircraft carriers protect international ocean-going trade routes. What countries will the US protect now? What nations will have to protect their own country and their own trade with their own military and what countries have the means to do so? The whole book is centered on eleven nations around the world. Each of them has certain critical parts: A lesson in the country’s geography for their ability to grow food, their navigable rivers and ports, croplands, access to natural resources, barriers that help to protect their borders, and their aging demographics. This is much more fleshed out in the Accidental Superpower book and really is the crux of all of Peter’s books. A history lesson is given on their formation of the country and how they fare with their neighbors, especially with belligerent Russia and China as well as the European Union (A united Germany has some very wary neighbors for instance). The continuity and composition of their present government and how well they have gotten along with the US in both the past and the present. Since the US has guarded all the oceans allowing unfettered access to global trade during the cold war, this is important as the US is quickly getting out of this role, especially for uneasy alliances formed in the past. Their military power and how it handles their ability to protect themselves if the US military no longer cares to get involved to protect the country or its sea trade routes. This is extremely important for counties that need to import just about everything (China) or have huge worldwide exports (China and Germany). The economy of both the country and region. How much of their economy depends on worldwide trading vs local consumption in its own country or its immediate neighbors? How strong does the government control its economy? Finally, the big question, how vulnerable its economy is to shocks of loss of trading partners, wars in the region, and dependent on the US protecting them? The outlook of the country, especially the ones that are heavily dependent on global trade yet are not besties with the US. What vulnerabilities and opportunities will occur in the future for them as countries start to destabilize as their economies change and their neighbors get weaker and/or more belligerent. The final section is how well the US will come out of all of the turmoil that Peter predicts for these nations and the EU. Included is a fascinating look at the forces that reshaping our political parties as they try to cope with radical changes in their parties, their people, their country, and the world. The book is written in kind of a grim, breezy style that is typically Peter. The history sections can get convoluted and bog down the pace. Plenty of funny and snarky footnotes. Peter has very strong opinions on, say, the ruling families of Saudi Arabia (avoid going there in the future Peter- you will be welcomed only for a good barbecue). Most countries get a brutal report card of bad governing, nasty relations with neighbors, and terrible economic futures. He is most definitely disgusted with the hype of “China’s miracle” (or in his words “Panda Boom”) economic growth and expects the country to have the largest and most spectacular crash in history as it goes down some time in Peter’s nebulous timelines. None of Peter's predictions have due dates, a few “next 5-10 years” and Peter’s patented demographic aging charts showing the rapid growth of elderly people retiring and crashing the economies. “Be specific, Bob.” You may be plucking from the air but if you are right, folks will forget the wrong predictions and remember the right ones. One final note which made me laugh out loud. As I am writing this, a certain bug is in the news in its early days with an R nought of 2.6 that started in a live animal open-air market in China 17 miles from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, China’s only BSL-4 bio lab that tests its pathogens on live animals. As Peter says for causing a country mayhem “Never underestimate the power of a good plague”.

I have the hardback which is 429 pages not including a short acknowledgment and index. The book was published in 2020 so it is pre-Ukraine and Israeli-Palestinian wars (I am writing on August 12, 2024). Times move fast and the global instability that the author predicts seems to be moving as well. The book reads easily and benefits from the author's usual touches of humor. The book is divided into 14 chapters, mostly about individual countries with specific "Report Cards" on each country. The book can be read in a few days and the author's points readily absorbed . The book starts with two chapters on how to rule the world using the British and US models. The author comes out of Stratfor so his US analysis starts with the end of WW II. President Roosevelt offered the West the deal of using the US Navy to ensure safe worldwide shipping and the US market to sell their exports in return for their support of US foreign policy with a view to containing the Soviet Union and the worldwide spread of communism. The rationale for this deal held together until the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. In the roughly 1/3rd of a century since then this rationale has been unraveling both internationally and within the US. The US "Order" has been dying a slow death since then. The book looks at which countries benefitted most from the Order and whether or how well the countries can adapt to the loss of the Order. In his analysis, geography and demography play key roles. If your primary analytical process uses politics and culture to look at the world you may not be fully persuaded of his points, but press on as his views should expand your analyses. I'll touch on three of his points that I found surprising. First, China is generally presented in the media as a 10 foot giant that will overwhelm the US probably sooner than anyone thinks. The author doesn't buy this view. For geographic, historical and cultural reasons he feels that China is more fragile than generally depicted in the US media. You can form your own opinion of his analysis of China, but he is careful to buttress his thoughts with information. Next, he views Japan as potentially much more powerful than I would have ever thought. He recognized the demographic problems Japan faces, but still feels that in a world where the US Order is in decline, that Japan occupies a more powerful position than I would have thought. Again, you can form your own opinion, but I personally have a bigger question mark on this. Last, in a world in which the US Order wanes, he has a positive view of the US position in large part due to the two large oceans that separate the US from the rest of the world and having Canada and Mexico as neighbors. Couple this with a lot of rich farm land, great navigable rivers, and mineral resources and the US position, in Mr. Zeihan's view, is enviable. Once again, you may ask yourself, but what about the political and cultural upheaval effects on all this? He makes a case that geography is destiny and you can incorporate this into whatever analytical process you prefer. He looks at many countries besides these three and provides a great deal of information on these other countries in Europe, the MidEast and South America. My conclusion is that the MidEast is just a problem and Europe has passed the peak of its influence. I will point out one large weakness in the book that almost caused me to give it 4 stars, not the 5 that I gave. The book has no chapter on India and even leading up to its publication in 2020, India was a major player - some references to India, but no analysis. The book's view of Russia might permit one to feel that the author would not have been surprised by the Russian attack on Ukraine, but it was published a couple of years too early. Israeli-Palestinian war - well, the MidEast is so unstable that war breaking out anywhere in the area at anytime is probably not a surprise. I recommend the book highly. If the subject interests you, the author's views will be informative. .

I really enjoyed reading Dis United Nations on a recent vacation. It's well researched, thought-provoking, and the author is very funny, taking potentially dry material and making it very easy to read! It's also in-line with other contemporaries like George Friedman (The Next 100 Years). I'm not sure how much is confirming vs. potential groupthink. I really appreciated the impact of geography and country culture as destiny to define the future. If you like futurism, geopolitics, and military strategy, you will really like this book and I recommend it. Having said that, I think the book has two fatal flaws: 1) it largely ignores the impact of new technology trends on future geopolitical trajectories. For example, most of the focus on the interest of trade is on physical goods but most of the innovation in the world is happening in the digital realm with virtual goods, cloud software, and services. The book nearly ignores these trends as if they don't exist, myopically focused on tangible trade goods (increasingly a shrinking part of the world economy). 2) It largely ignores the impact of global climate change. Much of the book talks about the role of oil and fossil fuels that will drive geopolitical actors and interests. But with the world moving toward a potential (and needed) zero carbon footprint by 2050, this will completely upend these current interests and make much of the value of carbon deposits way lower vs. new sources of energy, reimagined products that are electrified and require lower carbon, and new winners and losers in the world economy. I would love to see a follow-up that takes these two megatrends more into account and how they will affect the main actors. Perhaps it's just easier for me to be immersed in Silicon Valley vs. living in Texas where oil has an endless life. Maybe the next book in 2025 when these things will surely come more info focus

So, my first exposure to Peter Zeihan was via YouTube nearly 5 years ago it was a book review of Accidental Superpower of which Disunited Nations the 3rd book in a series. I haven't read absent superpower yet so I can tell you that you don't need to read them in any kind of order... although I would guess that the newer the better due to relevance. I know Zeihan can come off as too America focused to the point of putting off people from the rest of the world, which is unfortunate. But his work is still useful because the underlying methodology is sound, for example demographic trends are great at predicting economic trends within the context of geography and current technological development. A developed economy that still has a growing population is bound to be richer down the road via increased consumption of goods and services. A developed country with a declining/aging population will have less domestic consumption so they will need to export those goods and services... but what happens when almost everyone is facing a demographic decline? You can't export to those markets because they don't have the consumption to support your imports. So, imagine a world in which most of Europe, Asia, and even a good chunk of Africa has less consumption than today (before 2022 anyway) that is a recipe for disaster. This book lays that out in an easy to absorb manner. Zeihan takes what is admittedly dry boring data and paints a vivid picture of how the world works. These books are more detailed than his presentations are so if you only know his work from YouTube and think he is making a lot of assumptions than try his books... they tend to provide that missing detail or explain that glossed over point about that thing that bothered you so much in that presentation. Let it be known that whenever I would talk about Russia and Ukraine within my circles people would scoff at the fact that Russia would go back to something more akin to the 19th century. They would exclaim that the world changed to much. I think the last few months (the Ukraine invasion) is a validation for Zeihan's work... or at least brings a lot more credibility to the methodologies. I guarantee that after reading this book and understanding the methodology you don't give as much credence to the sensational news reports about how one country is winning in X or Y over another. Especially when its China v the US AI, Hypersonic Missiles, and that "Bigger" Navy seem less of a threat when you understand the vulnerability of China in something as basic as agriculture and energy. Anyway, let's hope the world gets less crazy and I hope you enjoy this book as much as I have.

I did not discover Peter until a few weeks ago. Now I am addicted. Understanding that he very accurately predicted, years ago, what is happening now blows my mind. Geographic and demographic facts that can perhaps be interpreted to reach different conclusions than he reaches, but facts nonetheless. And his conclusions are presented in a straightforward come sense way that even I can follow. Peter has opened my mind to a completely different understanding of the world and what is happening. I have now read all three of his currently released books and I am anxiously waiting for the fourth next week. I can only hope that those in our government are also reading his books! The geography of a country’s borders, it’s ability or lack thereof to defend those borders. Whether it has the land to grow crops or must import. Extract oil or import oil. All of these are fixed. Every country must decide how to deal with these issues, or cease to exist. Hungry people will do desperate things. There are fewer young people today than old and they are having fewer babies. It is not likely this trend will change, but even if it does “it takes twenty years to create a twenty year old person”. The trajectory we are currently on is going to continue for at least decades. PZ accurately predicted what Russia is currently doing because if they waited any longer they would not have enough soldiers to fight. His writing style is fantastic. His books are page turners. If you want to understand what is happening, and have a sense of what the future holds, you will enjoy reading his books.

Peter makes a compelling argument steeped in facts, figures and geography. I was trained in history to view ideas and biography as the linchpins of understanding events. Peter has added ammunition in the arsenal of understanding with hard numbers on demographics, geography and military capabilities. I will now look at great men and women of history as overcoming the limitations of demography and geography for their societies. History does not just happen, people seize opportunities or recognized dangers and prepared well. I would love to see a panel discussion with Peter Zeihan, Niall Ferguson and Victor Davis Hanson. Until we have a great strategic thinker emerge, America will just muddle through one crisis to another with little consistency or staying power. However, parts of the American Special Forces Community are building the networks, intelligence and doctrine to provide strategic shifts in the disordered world. Peter rightly extols their efforts in sub-Sahara Africa, but I think better work was done in Indonesia, with even fewer headlines. Rather than Pax Americana, the future will be unheralded American Nudge here and there with mixed outcomes. Some of America's best thinkers are in uniform and not in the limelight. I still think ideas matter. The idea that "all people are created equal" is a power premise for organizing a society. Those in power, be it dictators, oligarchs or juntas, can enlarge their wealth and power by enabling the creative and determined in their societies. Niall's killer apps of western civilization need to permeate the disordered world with American sponsorship. Peter, thank you for getting this book out on an accelerated schedule. You beat the headlines of international conflicts that can now be seen in context. Also, thank you for your snarky footnotes.

Zeihan envisions a world where the United States stops ensuring protection of the sea and the global order and imagines what could happen. While recent Trump policies make some of its assumptions true, the rest of the analysis is too deterministic to be taken beyond a thought experiment. In reality, every nation reacts and adapts, so the historical and geographical contexts used in the book are only part of the story. In the same way, the United States won't completely detach from the world as suggested, but most probably reduce its influence in some areas. Still, the thought experiment is helpful as it gives some general framework to help think about the current affairs

O autor cobre de forma bastante completa os diferentes cenários e regiões de conflito e competição econômica ao redor do planeta. Cada país de relevância no contexto global é avaliado em detalhes, sob um ponto de vista global e de relações internacionais. Aspectos geográficos, politicos, militares, econômicos e demográficos são os pilares dessas analises. Ao final, temos um panorama geral, onde o autor se arrisca a prever como será a nova ordem global nas próximas décadas. Interessante no geral, apenas com a ressalva de seu ponto de vista ser um pouco excessivamente EUA-centrista, avalizando uma posição exageradamente otimista a seu respeito (a despeito da óbvia grande liderança e poder dessa nação)

Il peggior libro che abbia letto da molto tempo a questa parte. Una celebrazione degli USA come unico Paese in grado di tenere un ordine globale, lo chiama proprio Order con la O maiuscola, inquietante, che garantisce pace e prosperità per tutti. Un’analisi storica socio-economica molto superficiale di Stati Uniti ed altri Paesi, scelti non si capisce con quale criterio, che vorrebbe riprodurre quelle di Jared Diamond associandovi una analisi politica molto semplificata. La conclusione è che finché gli Stati Uniti non si riassesteranno politicamente al loro interno non potranno ripristinare un nuovo ordine mondiale e nel mondo regnerà il caos. Megalomania pura

Peter clearly has researched the state of many countries and is capable of giving a historic summary right up to current state of affairs. He holds no punches and tells it like it is with accuracy backed up with facts. Highly recommended for any budding historian and those interested in the massive geopolitical change the world is currently now going through.

L'auteur se base sur les données les plus factuelles et pérennes possibles comme la démographie et la géographie pour en tirer des conclusions qui se sont déjà vérifiées correctes avec ses ouvrages précédents. Et tant pis si au passage cela détruit les préjugés et conceptions les plus couramment admisses.

This is the second Peter Zeihan book I’ve read in 72 hours. I find it gripping. Its predictions may not all be news to students of geopolitics but to this reader of The Economist it is still shockingly revelatory. Zeihan paints a sweeping picture of geopolitics but with a firm grasp of detail. Unlike so many books on very broad subjects (future of the planet for next few decades, anyone?), this still feels like it has grasped its subject fully and each argument is consummately backed up with clear evidence. Paradoxically, while the conclusions of this book are shocking for almost everyone except Americans, it has been immensely enjoyable. I’ve been as gripped by this intellectually heavy weight book as I have been by any trashy thriller. That is quite a feat.